The 2018 trade deadline bible
*THE TRADES WE NEED TO SEE*
The HUGE Deal—> Manny Machado and Zach Britton to the Cardinals for RHP Luke Weaver, OF Tyler O’Neil, SS Yairo Munoz, and RHP Johan Oviedo
I just don’t see how the Cardinals let the Cubs make a deal for Machado when they have the better prospects to make a deal. The key to this deal isn't just the prospects but the Cards have more than 30 million dollars coming off the books next year (Wainwright and Holland). Any team that send out a load of prospects to the Orioles would have to have the $30 million in their budget to bring back Machado next year. The Cardinals best asset is their depth of young pitching with Flaherty, Weaver, and Alex Reyes which makes them a better fit for the pitching starved Orioles than almost any other team in baseball besides the Braves. Reyes would have been a perfect fit for a deal that doesn’t hurt the big league staff but sends out a top-top prospect but but Weaver could still be slightly expendable knowing Reyes should be back healthy next year. This deal evens them up with the Cubs and probably pushes them ahead of the Brewers as well as giving Yadier Molina 3 extra months to recruit Machado. I don’t know if the Orioles give up both Machado and Britton without getting DeJong back instead of Munoz but I think its going to come down to the Orioles deciding if a package as deep as this one is worth trading your top two pieces. I think it’s a great deal for the Orioles and if they can turn around and trade Jones and Brach as well then the rebuild could get a huge influx of your players.
The other HUGE Deal -> Jacob DeGrom and Asdrubal Cabrera to the Yankees for 3B Miguel Andujar, LHP Justus Sheffield, OF Clint Frazier, RHP Dillon Tate
I want to preface this by saying I don't see how in any world the Mets do a deal with the Yankees sending a controllable top 5 ace in the league to them for any package. BUT. If the Yankees came calling with this package the Mets would have to be really bitter towards them to not think about it. Andujar has already become a steady force in the Yanks lineup and would give the Mets the young third base cornerstone they have been looking for since David Wright fell apart. Then you also get the Yankees top starting pitching prospect, Frazier who is one of the best outfield prospects in baseball, and a young hard throwing arm in Tate. Think about it Sandy Alderson. If not for the future of your team, do it it for all non Mets fans who want a humongous trade to happen this summer.
The Deal—> Chris Archer to the Yankees for RHP Chance Adams, OF Clint Frazier, RHP Albert Abreu
I wanted to send Hamels and Diekman to the Yankees but they just have enough veteran starters guys like Tanaka and Sabathia, so injecting a big-time young arm with a controllable contract (so they can still sign Kershaw or Corbin) could be exactly what they need to compete with the Red Sox and Astros strong pitching staffs. Frazier would be the centerpiece to the deal and he would give the Rays there young controllable middle of the order bat that could possibly replace the long gone thoughts of Evan Longoria. Adams could slide right into the rotations for the Rays and has the potential to be a really good #2 type guy right behind Snell for the next couple years and Abreu give them another top 100 pitching prospect to add to their system. This would be a great haul for a team that could have a stellar pitching staff in a couple years with Snell, Honeywell, and Adams but is a few years away like always.
The Deal—> Chris Archer to the Rockies for 1B/3B Ryan McMahon, RHP Riley Pint, RHP Peter Lambert, and C Dom Nunez
This would be one of the best AND SMARTEST moves in Rockies history in getting the Archer with a great contract for the next three years to go along with that young staff. The Rays would be getting their future third baseman who could start now and the rockies top 2 pitching prospects along with Nunez who has the potential to be an all around threat behind the plate in the next year or two.
The Deal—> Brad Hand to the Astros for RHP J.B. Bukauskas, OF/1B Yordan Alvarez, and RHP Riley Ferrell
I like Britton here if he isn’t added to the Machado deal but if that does happen Hand is probably a better option anyways with him being under contract for the next three years. The obvious here for the Astros is that they get a lock down closer (left handed too) and they can move guys like Giles, Devenski, and Rondon back to middle relief where they should be. They might not get away with not giving up Forrest Whitley in the deal, but if that is the hold up I don’t see why they wouldn’t budge with there depth of pitching in the majors and the minors. Now with the Padres, they get back two prospects who would be there top minor league arm and there second best hitting prospect (after the superstar Tatis) along with getting a guy in Ferrell who could be pitching out of the bullpen for them by next year.
The Deal—> Adrian Beltre and Keona Kela to the Indians for LHP Brady Aiken, RHP Aaron Civale, and RHP Julian Merryweather
This is as simple as it gets, the Rangers need as much young pitching as they can get and the Indians need an 8th inning right hander that can be a bridge guy for them just like Bryan Shaw was for so long. Beltre could give the Indians another strong bat to put in the middle of the order for the rest of the year and Ramirez could easily slide over to second for the rest of the season pushing the long struggling Kipnis to the bench.
The Deal—> Cole Hamels to the Rockies for 1B/3B Ryan McMahon and RHP Mike Nikorak
Out of all the deals I hope the Rockies make a deal for Hamels or Archer so they can have a veteran guy at the front of that young, promising rotation. Hamels would be the perfect rental to help pitch that powerful lineup to the top of the NL West and deep into the playoffs. McMahon would be a lot to give up but the Rockies have tons of corner infielders in their system and sending out McMahon would be worth a playoff #1 type rental. The Rangers have a ton of left handed hitters but McMahon would fit perfectly over at third base after they trade Beltre and they also get Nikorak who is a former first round pick with a great arm coming off Tommy John surgery.
The Deal—> Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman to the Yankees for RHP Chance Adams, 1B Tyler Austin, RHP Domingo Acevedo
I know I know I know.. I am a Rangers fan and blah blah but to me this makes the most sense for the Yankees if they don't end up doing a deal for DeGrom or Archer. The Yankees would get a veteran arm with a ton of postseason experience to slot in behind Severino and they also would get a left handed bullpen arm in Diekman who would be more reliable than Chasen Shreve. The Yankees are a great fit for any team but especially the Rangers because they can get a young arm on the verge of being big league ready in Adams or Justus Sheffield and they also get a right handed power bat that they really need in the organization. Add in a young power arm in Acevedo and I think the Rangers say a quick yes.
Give it a go Braves
The Deal—> Mike Moustakas to the Braves for SP Max Fried and OF Christian Pache
If the braves really want to make a push they have to get a veteran starter in the rotation along with all the young power arms BUT they could get Moustakas and Herrera while making a smaller deal for someone like Tyson Ross or Dan Straily. They have so much young pitching giving up Fried wouldn’t even dent the system and adding in Pache should be enough for the Royals to send off their last big asset.
The other deals that won’t be as exciting
—> Scooter Gennet to the Dodgers
—> JA Happ to the Dodgers
—> Tyson Ross to the Mariners
—> Billy Hamilton to the Giants
—> Wilson Ramos to the Nationals
—> Josh Donaldson????? to the Cardinals if they don’t get Machado or the Braves if they don't get Moustakas
Names to keep an eye on this summer
Jacob DeGrom RHP New York Mets 30 years old and controllable through 2020 5-2 1.51 ERA 120K/95IP
IF DeGrom becomes available, and thats a huge IF, he would become the top player on the market this summer. The Mets are in a really weird place with a middle of the pack farm system and one of the worst lineups in ghe league so they will have to decide in a couple weeks if they want 3 or 4 TOP prospects back and maybe sign Harper next year or if they want to keep the possible All-Star game starter for the NL.
Chris Archer RHP Tampa Bay Rays 29 years old and controllable through 2021 3-4 4.24 ERA 76K/76IP
The most attractive thing about Archer is that he has one of the best contracts of any top of the rotations pitcher in baseball. The Rays supposedly don’t want to deal him BUT if someone like the Brewers or the Rockies game in and offered 2 or 3 top guys it would be hard to turn down for the always rebuilding Rays.
Cole Hamels LHP Texas Rangers 34 years old with a 20 million dollar option next year and a 6 million dollar buyout 4-6 3.41 ERA 92K/92IP
As a Rangers fan I am hopefull the Mets and the Rays stay put so a bidding war will ensue between the top teams in the playoff race like the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, or the Brewers. Hamels would be the perfect #2 guy for a playoff team with his experience and his option/buyout next year.
J.A. Happ LHP Toronto Blue Jays 35 years old and a free agent next year 9-3 3.56 ERA 102K/92IP
Happ is another guy that would be a great rental for a team that needs one more experienced #3 starter for the playoffs. He doesn’t have near the playoff experience of Hamels but he will cost less and is having as good of a year as Hamels.
Tyson Ross RHP San Diego Padres 31 years old and a free agent next year 5-5 3.34 ERA 85K/89IP
Ross is another interesting veteran arm who fell off the last couple years but is having a resurgence this year. Another guy who has a little less experience than Cole but would cost less.
Zach Britton LHP Baltimore Orioles 30 years old and a free agent next year just off the DL
The former "best closer in the league" with his deadly sinker has had trouble staying healthy but should prove over the next month he is the same guy who had 47 saves and a .54 ERA two years ago. I woudl think the Orioles should package him with Machado so they can get 3 or 4 top 10 prospects from some team.
Brad Hand LHP San Diego Padres 28 years old and controllable through 2021 21 Saves 2.43 ERA 54K/37IP
The best value of any player on the list besides DeGrom and Archer, Hand would give a postseason team like the Astros a lock down left handed closer who should make his second All-Star team this year. The Padres are crazy if they dont take advantage of Hand’s value and geta couple really good young players back.
Raisel Iglesias RHP Cincinnati Reds 28 years old and controllable through 2021 11 Saves 2.37 ERA 36K/30IP
Iglesias is another guy that would fit perfectly as an 8th inning but with his track record maybe it is time to give him a little taste of the postseason as a closer. He's pretty much been a lock down guy since he took over as the closer in Cincinnati and with him being controllable for the next three years he should bring in a big haul of prospects. Someone like the Phillies or the Cardinals would be perfect fits for him to take over the 9th inning role.
Keone Kela RHP Texas Rangers 25 years old and controllable through 2021 17 Saves 3.76 ERA 31K/26IP
Kela is intriguing because he is the youngest guy on the pitchers list and like Iglesias is controllable for the next three years. His biggest problem is that this is his first year as a closer and pitching for the Rangers hasn't brought him to many high leverage situations like he would see in the playoffs. Not sure if he gets trade because the Rangers would want a closer type package and I would think the team trading for him would be looking for him to be the 8th inning guy.
Shane Greene RHP Detroit Tigers 29 years old and signed through 2020 19 Saves 3.57 ERA 40K/35IP
Greene has been as consistent as it gets the last three years averaging a mid 3 ERA and around a strike out per inning. Coming into the year the Tigers bullpen situation was one of the most in flux in the whole league but Greene locked it down and might be headed to his first All-Star game as the Tigers only realistic option. With hik not have the usual closer type stuff he probably fits best in the 8th inning for a team like the Red Sox or the Dodgers.
OTHER NAMES -->> Jake Diekman LHP (Rangers), Kyle Barraclough RHP (Marlins), Dan Straily RHP (Marlins), Clayton Richard LHP (Padres), Sergio Romo (Rays), Jeurys Familia RHP (Mets), Danny Duffy LHP (Royals), Joakim Soria RHP (White Sox), Ryan Tepera RHP (Jays), Brad Brach RHP (Orioles), Darren O'day RHP (Orioles), Felipe Vazquez LHP (Pirates) Matt Boyd LHP (Tigers), Francisco Liriano LHP (Tigers)
Manny Machado SS/3B Baltimore Orioles 25 years old and a free agent next year .304 BA 18HR 53RBI .923 OPS
We've been hearing Machado's name for two years now and this is the time the Orioles have a Astros/Cubs type fire-sale and hopefully get a couple prospects to add to their top 10 list. Most of the deals where mentioned before so as long as they can get a top of the line pitching prospect and a couple more pieces then they better finally pull the trigger.
Jose Abreu 1B Chicago White Sox 31 years old and controllable through 2019 .281 BA 11HR 42RBI .829 OPS
The White Sox have been selling off every piece they can for it seems like forever now so this would be the final piece for them to move if they still think they are a couple years away. They have to decide if they want Abreu (who is a great clubhouse guy and top 1B bat) to stick around and spark up the young team or trade the 31 year old who will probably be on the backside of his career by the time they are contending. Part of me would hate for them to move him but it makes the most sense when you look at their contending timeline being 2 or 3 years away.
JT Realmuto C Miami Marlins 27 years old and controllable through 2020 .297 BA 9HR 27RBI .879 OPS
Supposedly the Marlins are asking for a kings ransom for Realmuto even though they trade Stanton, Ozuna, and Yelich for a really underwhelming prospects. No one really knows what the hell the Marlins are thinking but in a sane world they would trade there last big piece for some top prospects from a team like the Red Sox or the Nationals (who I don't think the Marlins want to trade with). Make the deal Jeter!
Mike Moustakas 3B Kansas City Royals 29 years old with a 15 million dollar option for next year .263 BA 14HR 48RBI .800 OPS
How the hell did Moustakas not get a multi year deal this offseason!? The Angels signed Zach Cozart to a three year deal! What is everyone else's loss will be the Royals gain when they finally can flip him for a couple prospects to a team like the Braves or the Phillies. His 15 million dollar option for next year looks like a great pickup for the team that trades for him if they can convince Moustakas to pick up the mutual option.
Scooter Gennett 2B/OF Cincinnati Reds 28 years old and controllable through 2019 .335 BA 13HR 50RBI .907 OPS
Gennett has been one of the best hitters in the National League... We all thought last year was an aberration when he hit 20 bombs but he's on pace to hit more than that this year and more than likely grabbing an All-Star spot too. This is probably the most confusing name on the list because the Reds really need to sell high on him with Nick Senzel on the horizon but I don't think anyone knows what type of value they can get for him.
Adrian Beltre 3B Texas Rangers 39 years old and a free agent next year .302 BA 3HR 22RBI .785 OPS
The Rangers have already said they will leave it up to Beltre to decide if he wants to jump on a contending team for the rest of the year to chase that World Series ring he has came so close to. As long as they can get a couple mid level pitching prospects from the team I'm sure a veteran team in need of a right handed bat like the Indians or the Red Sox will come calling. I don't see him wanting to go to a team like the Braves or the Phillies that probably are more pretenders than contenders.
Starling Marte OF Pittsburgh Pirates 29 years old with team options for 2020 and 2021 .280 BA 9HR 34RBI .807 OPS
The Pirates teased there fans with a solid two months but now that they are falling out of contention and are nowhere near the Cubs, Brewers, or Cards they might as well trade there last big piece in Marte. Marte has had the issues with the suspension last year and has been a little inconsistent but he is an All-Star caliber centerfielder with another three years on his deal so he could probably fetch a big haul from someone like the Mariners or the Giants.
Josh Donaldson 3B Toronto Blue Jays 32 years old and a free agent next year .234 BA 5HR 16RBI .757 OPS
What a waste of trade value. This is the perfect example of a team holding on to a player who you could receive a huge package of prospects for and then he bottoms out and I don't see them getting more than 2 or 3 mid level prospects with him being probably the 5th or 6th best bat on the market. Big swing and a miss from a Blue Jays team that really needed to start rebuilding last year.
Adam Jones OF Baltimore Orioles 32 years old and a free agent next year .292 BA 10HR 31RBI .769 OPS
Jones couldn't get too much of a haul from someone but with him being in a walk year and still being a consistent right hand bat they Orioles might as well send him out to a team like the Giants or the Diamondbacks. Most of the teams in contention could use a good clubhouse, power bat like Jones for the stretch run and the Orioles could just re-sign him in the offseason if they really wanted to keep him around.
Wilson Ramos C Tampa Bay Rays 30 years old and a free agent next year .288 BA 9HR 36RBI .784 OPS
The Red Sox, Indians, Twins, Nationals, and the Brewers could use an upgrade at catcher and after Realmuto Ramos could provide a proven bat that would be a major upgrade for any of these teams.
OTHER NAMES-->> Billy Hamilton OF (Reds), Starlin Castro 2B (Marlins), Asdrubal Cabrera IF (Mets), Jonathan Lucroy C (Athletics), Yangervis Solarte IF (Blue Jays), Josh Harrison IF (Pirates), Adam Duvall OF (Reds), Scott Schlebler OF (Reds), Matt Duffy (Rays), Leonys Martin OF (Tigers)
-JUST SOME DUDE